Asia Cup 2025

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka, 15th Match Asia Cup 2025

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

08:00 PM IST

From: Zayed Cricket Stadium

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

🏏 Match Prediction

The 15th match of the Asia Cup 2025 Super Four sees Pakistan (PAK) take on Sri Lanka (SL) at the Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi. Check pitch report, probable XIs, key players, and winning chances in our PAK vs SL Asia Cup 2025 match prediction.

Pakistan, under Salman Ali Agha’s leadership, boast a powerful top order with Sahibzada Farhan, Saim Ayub, and Fakhar Zaman. Middle-order stability comes from Hussain Talat and captain Salman, while wicketkeeper Mohammad Haris adds aggression. All-rounders Faheem Ashraf and Mohammad Nawaz provide depth, and the bowling attack is spearheaded by Shaheen Afridi and Haris Rauf, with Abrar Ahmed’s mystery spin as an X-factor.

Sri Lanka, led by Charith Asalanka, rely on the experienced duo of Pathum Nissanka and Kusal Mendis at the top. Kusal Perera’s explosiveness and Kamindu Mendis’ adaptability strengthen the batting core, while Dasun Shanaka adds all-round utility. Wanindu Hasaranga and Dunith Wellalage provide spin firepower, complemented by Chameera and Nuwan Thushara’s pace.

📌 If Pakistan Bat First

Expected Total: 155–175
Key Batters: Fakhar Zaman, Sahibzada Farhan
Key Sri Lanka Bowlers: Dushmantha Chameera (new ball), Wanindu Hasaranga (middle overs)
Strategic Insight: Pakistan’s aggressive left-handers could target the powerplay, but Hasaranga’s spin in the middle overs may test their composure. If Pakistan cross 170, their bowling attack gives them a strong chance to defend.

📌 If Sri Lanka Bat First

Expected Total: 145–165
Key Batters: Kusal Mendis, Charith Asalanka
Key Pakistan Bowlers: Shaheen Afridi (powerplay), Abrar Ahmed (middle overs)
Strategic Insight: Nissanka and Mendis will need to survive Shaheen’s early swing. If Asalanka and Hasaranga build partnerships, Sri Lanka can post a fighting total. Anything under 150 might tilt the game heavily in Pakistan’s favor.

🎯 Winning Probability – Asia Cup 2025 Prediction

Pakistan (PAK): 55%
Sri Lanka (SL): 45%

👉 According to our PAK vs SL Asia Cup 2025 prediction, Pakistan hold a slight edge with their potent pace attack and aggressive top order. However, Sri Lanka’s spin twins Hasaranga and Wellalage could shift the balance if they strike in the middle overs. Expect a close battle under lights in Abu Dhabi.

🏏 Top Batsman: Fakhar Zaman (PAK) (~3.6 odds) – Pakistan’s explosive opener has the ability to take on both pace and spin. If he survives the new ball, his aggressive strokeplay can set the tone for a big total in Abu Dhabi.

🎯 Top Bowler: Wanindu Hasaranga (SL) (~3.8 odds) – Sri Lanka’s star spinner loves Asian conditions and has a knack for breaking partnerships in the middle overs. Against Pakistan’s left-hand heavy lineup, his variations could prove decisive.

⚡ Top All-Rounder: Faheem Ashraf (PAK) (~4.2 odds) – Faheem offers dual value with his lower-order hitting and clever medium-pace bowling. On a surface that provides grip, his cutters can be effective while he adds crucial finishing runs.

📊 Match Analytics

Pakistan (PAK)
✅ Strengths:

Aggressive opening duo of Sahibzada Farhan and Saim Ayub can maximize the powerplay.
Experienced left-hander Fakhar Zaman provides explosiveness at the top.
Potent bowling unit with Shaheen Afridi’s pace, Haris Rauf’s death bowling, and Abrar Ahmed’s mystery spin.

⚠️ Weaknesses:

Middle order (Talat, Salman Agha) can be vulnerable under pressure.
Heavy reliance on Shaheen Afridi for early wickets.
Spin attack depends too much on Abrar; Nawaz and Faheem’s consistency is questionable.

⭐ Key Players to Watch: Fakhar Zaman, Shaheen Afridi, Mohammad Haris

Sri Lanka (SL)
✅ Strengths:

Stable top order with Pathum Nissanka and Kusal Mendis anchoring the innings.
All-round balance with Shanaka, Kamindu, and Hasaranga in the middle order.
Strong spin duo in Wanindu Hasaranga and Dunith Wellalage, supported by pace of Chameera and Nuwan Thushara.

⚠️ Weaknesses:

Over-dependence on Mendis and Nissanka for consistent runs.
Lower order can collapse if top five don’t contribute.
Pace attack lacks depth beyond Chameera and Thushara.

⭐ Key Players to Watch: Kusal Mendis, Wanindu Hasaranga, Charith Asalanka

📌 Overall Insight:
This contest is set to be a classic battle of Pakistan’s pace attack vs Sri Lanka’s spin strength. If Shaheen Afridi strikes early against Nissanka and Mendis, Pakistan will hold the edge. On the other hand, Sri Lanka’s spinners, Hasaranga and Wellalage, could trouble Pakistan’s left-hand heavy batting lineup in the middle overs. Expect a tactical battle where the middle phase may decide the outcome.

🧾 PAK vs SL Probable Playing XI

Pakistan: Sahibzada Farhan, Saim Ayub, Fakhar Zaman, Salman Ali Agha (c), Hussain Talat, Mohammad Haris (wk), Mohammad Nawaz, Faheem Ashraf, Shaheen Afridi, Haris Rauf, Abrar Ahmed

Sri Lanka: Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis (wk), Kamil Mishara, Kusal Perera, Charith Asalanka (c), Dasun Shanaka, Kamindu Mendis, Wanindu Hasaranga, Dunith Wellalage, Dushmantha Chameera, Nuwan Thushara

📌 These are probable XIs and may change depending on pitch conditions, team strategy, and player fitness.

🌍 Pitch Report & Weather Conditions

The Zayed Cricket Stadium in Abu Dhabi generally offers a balanced surface, assisting both batters and bowlers. Pacers like Shaheen Afridi and Dushmantha Chameera can extract bounce and swing with the new ball, making the powerplay crucial. As the game progresses, spinners such as Wanindu Hasaranga and Abrar Ahmed will play a key role in controlling the middle overs and picking up wickets.

Batting usually becomes easier under lights due to the dew factor, making chasing the safer option at this venue.

Average 1st Innings Score (ODIs): 145–165 runs
Pitch Nature: Balanced – offers movement for pacers early, grip for spinners later.
Pace vs Spin: Pacers dominate in powerplay and death overs; spinners control the middle phase.
Weather: Hot and dry 🌤 around 34–36°C with clear skies. Rain unlikely. Dew expected in evening.

📌 Toss Impact: Teams prefer bowling first in Abu Dhabi, taking advantage of early seam movement and chasing with dew support in the second innings.

🎯 Key Player Matchups & Impact Players

🔑 Key Player Matchups

Sahibzada Farhan vs Dushmantha Chameera – Farhan’s fearless stroke play against Chameera’s pace and bounce in the powerplay could decide Pakistan’s start.
Fakhar Zaman vs Wanindu Hasaranga – Fakhar’s attacking approach against Sri Lanka’s premier spinner will be a crucial middle-overs contest.
Kusal Mendis vs Shaheen Afridi – A battle of consistency vs pace; Mendis’ ability to handle Shaheen’s swing will be key in Sri Lanka’s chase.
Charith Asalanka vs Abrar Ahmed – Sri Lanka’s skipper vs Pakistan’s mystery spinner – a tactical duel that could tilt momentum.

🌟 Impact Players

Pakistan (PAK):

Fakhar Zaman – Aggressive opener who can take the game away if he settles.
Shaheen Afridi – Pakistan’s strike weapon with the new ball and at the death.
Abrar Ahmed – Mystery spinner with wicket-taking ability in the middle overs.

Sri Lanka (SL):

Kusal Mendis – Reliable top-order batter and a match-winner in Asian conditions.
Wanindu Hasaranga – All-rounder with impact potential in both departments.
Charith Asalanka – Captain and stabilizer in the middle order, key to anchoring innings.

💸 Fantasy Cricket Tips & Captaincy Choices

📌 Must-Have Picks:

Fakhar Zaman (PAK): Explosive opener; capable of changing the game with a powerplay blitz.
Sahibzada Farhan (PAK): In-form opener who can provide steady runs at the top.
Shaheen Afridi (PAK): Strike bowler with early wickets and death-over impact.
Abrar Ahmed (PAK): Mystery spinner; strong wicket-taking option in middle overs.
Kusal Mendis (SL): Consistent top-order batter; reliable fantasy run-getter.
Wanindu Hasaranga (SL): All-rounder; offers dual value with bat and ball.
Charith Asalanka (SL): Captain and middle-order anchor; key to building partnerships.

👑 Captaincy Choices:

Captain: Fakhar Zaman / Kusal Mendis
Vice-Captain: Shaheen Afridi / Wanindu Hasaranga

📌 Tips Based on Abu Dhabi Conditions:

Dew factor in Abu Dhabi favors chasing teams, so top-order batters like Fakhar and Mendis gain more value if their team bats second.
Spinners (Hasaranga, Abrar) will dominate the middle overs – prioritize them in fantasy lineups.
All-rounders like Faheem Ashraf and Dasun Shanaka provide balance with both bat and ball, making them strong differential picks.
In grand leagues, opting for a bowler captain (Shaheen Afridi or Hasaranga) could give you a big edge if conditions favor them.

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