LSG vs RCB, 59th Match, TATA IPL 2025

The 59th match of TATA IPL 2025 sees Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) face Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) at the Bharat Ratna Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ekana Cricket Stadium in Lucknow on May 9, 2025. RCB, currently second in the points table with 16 points from 11 matches (8 wins, 3 losses, NRR +0.482), is in scintillating form, having won four of their last five games. LSG, positioned seventh with 10 points from 11 matches (5 wins, 6 losses, NRR -0.469), has struggled, losing four of their last five matches. Historically, RCB holds a 3-2 head-to-head advantage over LSG, adding to their confidence. Given RCB’s superior form and the need for just one more win to secure a playoff spot, they are favored to win with a 60–65% probability. LSG, playing at home, will rely on their explosive batting to challenge RCB, but their inconsistent form makes an upset less likely. The Ekana Stadium’s balanced pitch suggests a high-scoring game, with the team batting first targeting 180–190 runs.

Winning Probability:

• Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 60–65% ✅

• Lucknow Super Giants: 35–40%

If RCB Bats First:

• Expected Total: 180–190 runs, driven by Virat Kohli’s consistency, Phil Salt’s aggression, and Tim David’s finishing.

• Key Bowlers (LSG): Mayank Yadav’s pace and Avesh Khan’s variations must strike early to keep RCB under 190.

• Finishers to Watch: Liam Livingstone and Jitesh Sharma could push RCB past 190 with late hitting.

If LSG Bats First:

• Expected Total: 160–170 runs, powered by Rishabh Pant’s dynamism and Nicholas Pooran’s middle-over aggression.

• Key Bowlers (RCB): Josh Hazlewood’s accuracy and Bhuvneshwar Kumar’s swing will target LSG’s top order to restrict them below 170.

• Game Changers: David Miller and Abdul Samad could accelerate in the death overs to set a competitive total.

Lucknow Super Giants (LSG):

1. Aiden Markram

2. Mitchell Marsh

3. Nicholas Pooran

4. Rishabh Pant (c & wk)

5. David Miller

6. Abdul Samad

7. Shardul Thakur

8. Avesh Khan

9. Mayank Yadav

10. Ravi Bishnoi

11. Akash Deep Impact Player Options: Ayush Badoni, Shahbaz Ahmed, Digvesh Singh Rathi

Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB):

1. Phil Salt

2. Virat Kohli

3. Rajat Patidar (c)

4. Tim David

5. Liam Livingstone

6. Jitesh Sharma (wk)

7. Krunal Pandya

8. Bhuvneshwar Kumar

9. Josh Hazlewood

10. Yash Dayal

11. Rasikh Dar Impact Player Options: Romario Shepherd, Suyash Sharma, Jacob Bethell

Team News:

• LSG: No reported injuries, with all players available. Mitchell Marsh’s inclusion strengthens the top order, but his availability is subject to confirmation due to recent personal commitments.

• RCB: Devdutt Padikkal is out for the season, replaced by Mayank Agarwal, who adds experience to the batting lineup.

Lucknow Super Giants (LSG):

• Strengths:

  • Explosive batting lineup with Rishabh Pant, Nicholas Pooran, and David Miller capable of dominating any bowling attack.

  • Strong pace attack led by Mayank Yadav and Avesh Khan, effective in powerplay and death overs.

  • Home advantage at Ekana Stadium, where LSG has won 9 out of 18 IPL matches.

• Weaknesses:

  • Inconsistent recent form, with four losses in their last five games, indicating struggles under pressure.

  • Spin bowling relies heavily on Ravi Bishnoi, who has been inconsistent this season.

• Key Players:

  • Rishabh Pant: Dynamic captain and wicketkeeper, crucial for middle-order stability.

  • Mayank Yadav: Express pacer, capable of unsettling RCB’s top order.

  • Nicholas Pooran: Aggressive batsman, key to accelerating in the middle overs.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB):

• Strengths:

  • Excellent form, with four wins in their last five matches, showcasing a balanced team.

  • Potent batting lineup with Virat Kohli, Phil Salt, and Liam Livingstone, suited to high-scoring games.

  • Strong bowling attack, with Josh Hazlewood and Bhuvneshwar Kumar providing control and wickets.

• Weaknesses:

  • Potential over-reliance on top-order batsmen; middle order untested under pressure.

  • Away game challenges, though RCB has won six away matches this season.

• Key Players:

  • Virat Kohli: Consistent run-scorer, vital for anchoring or chasing big totals.

  • Josh Hazlewood: Experienced pacer, key to early breakthroughs and death-over control.

  • Phil Salt: Aggressive opener, likely to capitalize on the powerplay.

🏟  Venue: Bharat Ratna Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow

🌡Weather: Hot, with temperatures around 32°C, and a chance of light rain. Humidity is low at 19%, suggesting minimal dew impact for the evening match. Clear skies are expected, ensuring a full game (Business Today).

Pitch Characteristics:

• The Ekana Stadium pitch is balanced, slightly favoring batters but offering assistance to pacers and spinners as the game progresses. In IPL 2025, the surface has varied, with some matches favoring batters and others slowing down.

• Historical data shows 8 wins for teams batting first and 7 for teams chasing in 16 IPL matches, with an average first-innings score of ~168 runs (Business Standard).

• The pitch’s mixed soil and long straight boundaries (68–70 meters) can challenge aggressive batting, benefiting bowlers in the middle overs.

Ideal Strategy:

🧤Batting First: Target 180+ by preserving wickets for a late surge (Pant/Miller for LSG, Kohli/Livingstone for RCB).

💡Bowling First: Focus on early wickets in the powerplay (Markram/Salt) and use spin in the middle overs (Bishnoi/Krunal Pandya). Toss winners may prefer to bowl first due to recent chasing success.

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Lucknow Super Giants Recent Performance:

• Form Guide: L-W-L-L-L (1 win in last 5 matches).

  • Lost to Punjab Kings by 37 runs (May 4, 2025).

  • Lost to Mumbai Indians by 54 runs (April 27, 2025).

  • Lost to Delhi Capitals by 8 wickets (April 22, 2025).

  • Won against Rajasthan Royals by 2 runs (April 19, 2025).

  • Lost to Chennai Super Kings by 5 wickets (April 14, 2025).

• Batting Strength: Rishabh Pant and Nicholas Pooran provide firepower, but the top order has been inconsistent.

• Bowling Dominance: Mayank Yadav’s pace is a threat, but the spin department lacks depth.

• Venue Record: LSG has won 9 out of 18 IPL matches at Ekana Stadium, indicating a strong home record.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru Recent Performance:

• Form Guide: L-W-W-W-W (4 wins in last 5 matches).

  • Won against Chennai Super Kings by 2 runs (May 3, 2025).

  • Won against Delhi Capitals by 6 wickets (April 27, 2025).

  • Won against Rajasthan Royals by 11 runs (April 24, 2025).

  • Won against Punjab Kings by 7 wickets (April 20, 2025).

  • Lost to Punjab Kings by 5 wickets (April 18, 2025).

• Batting Depth: Virat Kohli’s consistency and Phil Salt’s aggression make RCB’s top order formidable.

• Bowling Threats: Josh Hazlewood and Bhuvneshwar Kumar provide control, with Yash Dayal emerging as a key pacer.

• Venue Record: RCB has a mixed record at Ekana, notably defending 126 runs against LSG in 2023.

Head-to-Head Record:

• RCB leads 3-2 in five IPL encounters against LSG (Times of India).

• Notable match: RCB defended 126 runs in 2023, bowling out LSG for 108.

Overall Verdict: RCB’s recent form, balanced squad, and historical edge give them a 60–65% win probability. LSG’s home advantage and desperate need for a win make them competitive, but their inconsistency may prove costly.

Key Battle to Watch:

• Phil Salt vs Mayank Yadav: Salt’s aggressive powerplay batting faces Yadav’s raw pace. If Salt dominates, RCB could post 190+; if Yadav strikes, LSG may restrict RCB below 180.

⚔️Powerplay Battle: Markram/Marsh vs Hazlewood/Kumar for LSG; Salt/Kohli vs Yadav/Khan for RCB. RCB’s openers have an edge due to their form.

🔄Spin vs Middle Order: Bishnoi vs Patidar/Livingstone; Krunal Pandya vs Pant/Miller. Bishnoi’s control is crucial for LSG.

💣Death Overs Execution: Thakur/Samad vs Kumar/Dayal; Livingstone/Sharma vs Khan/Yadav. RCB’s bowling depth gives a slight advantage.

🧱Top-Order Consistency: Pooran’s aggression vs Kohli’s stability. RCB’s top order is more reliable.

🧠Captaincy Tactics: Pant’s aggressive approach vs Patidar’s strategic rotations. RCB’s experience could outmaneuver LSG.

🧠Top Fantasy Picks:

• Captain Choice: 🔥 Virat Kohli (RCB) – Consistent run-scorer, likely to anchor or chase big totals.

• Vice-Captain Choice: ⚡ Rishabh Pant (LSG) – Dynamic batsman, capable of game-changing knocks.

• Budget Pick: 💎 Mayank Yadav (LSG) – Emerging pacer with potential for multiple wickets.

Dream11 Picks:

• Wicketkeeper: Jitesh Sharma

• Batsmen: Virat Kohli (VC), Rajat Patidar, Nicholas Pooran

• All-Rounders: Mitchell Marsh, Liam Livingstone

• Bowlers: Josh Hazlewood (C), Avesh Khan, Ravi Bishnoi

• Note: Prioritize RCB batsmen for their form and LSG bowlers for their home advantage. Adjust based on toss and final XI.

🔍Key Player Match-Ups:

• Phil Salt vs Mayank Yadav: Salt’s 160+ strike rate faces Yadav’s pace. If Salt fires, RCB set 190+; if Yadav strikes, LSG keep RCB under 180.

• Rishabh Pant vs Josh Hazlewood: Pant’s aggression meets Hazlewood’s accuracy. If Pant dominates, LSG post 170+; if Hazlewood strikes, RCB restrict LSG below 160.

• Virat Kohli vs Ravi Bishnoi: Kohli’s spin-playing ability faces Bishnoi’s guile. If Kohli anchors, RCB chase 180+; if Bishnoi strikes, LSG gain control.

📊Win Probability & Betting Odds:

• Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 60–65% (Odds: ~1.80–1.95) ✅

• Lucknow Super Giants: 35–40% (Odds: ~2.00–2.20)

🏆Final Prediction

Royal Challengers Bengaluru are favored to win due to their exceptional form, balanced squad, and historical edge, giving them a 60–65% chance of victory. LSG’s home advantage and explosive batting, led by Rishabh Pant and Nicholas Pooran, make them competitive, but their recent inconsistency could prove costly. Expect a high-scoring match, with RCB likely to win by 10–15 runs if defending 180+ or by 5–7 wickets if chasing, leveraging their top-order strength. The toss may favor bowling first, and clear weather ensures a full match.

📢Final Thoughts

Batters like Kohli, Pant, and Pooran are fantasy must-haves on Ekana’s balanced pitch, while Hazlewood, Yadav, and Bishnoi will be key for wickets. All-rounders like Marsh and Livingstone add versatility for big points. Stay updated with lineup news closer to the match, as LSG’s team selection could impact their strategy.

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