PBKS vs DC, 66th Match, TATA IPL 2025

The 66th match of TATA IPL 2025 sees Punjab Kings (PBKS) face Delhi Capitals (DC) at Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur, on May 24, 2025, 7:30 PM IST. PBKS, third with 17 points from 12 games (8 wins, 3 losses, 1 washout, NRR +0.85), aim for a top-two finish to secure two playoff chances, coming off a 10-run win over RR at this venue. DC, fifth with 13 points (6 wins, 7 losses), are eliminated after a 59-run loss to MI and play for pride. Their earlier 2025 clash in Dharamsala was abandoned at 122/1 (10.1 overs) due to security issues. PBKS lead the head-to-head 17-16 over 33 games, with DC winning 5/7 recent matches but losing the last two.

Sawai Mansingh’s batting-friendly pitch (average 1st innings: 200, RR 9.5 in 2025) offers early swing for pacers (economy 10.6) and spin assistance (economy 8.8) in middle overs. Dew (60% chance) and no rain risk favor chasing (64% wins, 39/62 games). PBKS’s batting depth (Iyer: 435 runs, Prabhsimran: 458 runs) and bowling (Arshdeep: 16 wickets, Chahal: 13 wickets) outshine DC’s inconsistent top order (average 21.17 away) and weak away bowling (average 35.29). PBKS’s recent Jaipur win (219/5 vs RR) and form (W-W-W-L-W) give them the edge, though DC’s Rahul (504 runs) and Stubbs could spark an upset.

🏆 Winning Probability:
📊 Punjab Kings – 70% ✅
📊 Delhi Capitals – 30%

📋 If PBKS Bats First:
✅ Expected Total: 200–220 runs, led by Prabhsimran Singh’s powerplay and Shreyas Iyer’s middle-order stability.
✅ Key Bowlers (DC): Kuldeep Yadav and Mustafizur Rahman must strike early to keep PBKS under 210.
✅ Finishers to Watch: Shashank Singh and Marcus Stoinis could push PBKS past 215 with late hitting.

📋 If DC Bats First:
✅ Expected Total: 180–200 runs, driven by KL Rahul’s anchoring and Tristan Stubbs’ finishing.
✅ Key Bowlers (PBKS): Arshdeep Singh and Yuzvendra Chahal will target DC’s middle order to restrict them under 190.
✅ Game Changers: Axar Patel and Ashutosh Sharma could accelerate for a competitive total.

Punjab Kings (PBKS):

• Priyansh Arya

• Prabhsimran Singh (wk)

• Shreyas Iyer (c)

• Josh Inglis

• Nehal Wadhera

• Shashank Singh

• Marcus Stoinis

• Azmatullah Omarzai

• Marco Jansen

• Arshdeep Singh

• Yuzvendra Chahal
  Impact Player Options: Harpreet Brar, Xavier Bartlett, Vijaykumar Vyshak, Mitchell Owen

Delhi Capitals (DC):

• Faf du Plessis

• KL Rahul

• Abishek Porel (wk)

• Sameer Rizvi

• Axar Patel (c)

• Tristan Stubbs

• Ashutosh Sharma

• Vipraj Nigam

• Kuldeep Yadav

• Mustafizur Rahman

• Mukesh Kumar
  Impact Player Options: Dushmantha Chameera, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Madhav Tiwari, Mohit Sharma

🔴 Punjab Kings (PBKS):
✅ Strengths:

• Explosive top order (Prabhsimran: 458 runs, SR 171.53; Arya: SR 185.1 in powerplay) with 1,000+ combined runs in 2025.

• Balanced bowling (Arshdeep: 16 wickets, Chahal: 13 wickets, Brar’s 3/25 vs RR) suited to Jaipur’s spin-friendly track.

• Strong form (W-W-W-L-W), 219/5 vs RR at this venue.

❌ Weaknesses:

• Arshdeep’s occasional leaks (0/60 vs RR).

• Middle-order reliance on Iyer, Wadhera if openers fail.

⭐ Key Players:

• Shreyas Iyer: 435 runs, SR 174.70, 3 fifties vs DC.

• Prabhsimran Singh: 458 runs, SR 171.53, quickfire 50 vs DC.

• Yuzvendra Chahal: 13 wickets, key on spin-friendly pitch.

🔵 Delhi Capitals (DC):
✅ Strengths:

• KL Rahul’s form (504 runs, average 56, SR 148.67, 3 fifties, 1 hundred).

• Axar Patel’s all-round impact (194 runs, 20 wickets vs PBKS).

• Stubbs’ middle-order firepower (120 runs vs PBKS).

❌ Weaknesses:

• Poor away bowling (average 35.29, 24 wickets in 2025).

• Top-order struggles (average 21.17, SR 135.84 away).

⭐ Key Players:

• KL Rahul: 504 runs, 196 runs in Jaipur (average 65.3).

• Axar Patel: 20 wickets vs PBKS, key spinner.

• Tristan Stubbs: Potential game-changer, 71* at Wankhede.

🏟 Venue: Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur

🌡 Weather: 39°C (max 41°C, min 28°C), 33% humidity, 5% rain chance, 60% dew chance. Hot and dry, favoring chasing.

Pitch Characteristics:
✅ Batting-Friendly: Average 1st innings: 200 (2025, RR 9.5). Highest: 219/5 (PBKS vs RR, 2025).
✅ Balanced Attack: Pacers (economy 10.6) get early swing; spinners (economy 8.8) grip in middle overs.
✅ Chasing Edge: 64% wins (39/62 games) for chasing teams due to dew and fast outfield (boundaries: 60m square, 75m straight).

Ideal Strategy:
🧤 Batting First: Target 200-210, preserving wickets for Iyer/Shashank’s surge.
💡 Bowling First: Early wickets (Prabhsimran/Rahul) and spin in middle overs (Chahal/Kuldeep) are key. Toss winners likely to bowl first (39/62 chases won).

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Punjab Kings (PBKS) Recent Performance:
🔥 Batting Strength: Prabhsimran’s 458 runs, Iyer’s 435 runs (SR 174.70), and Wadhera’s 73 vs RR powered 219/5.
💥 Bowling Dominance: Brar’s 3/25, Chahal’s spin (13 wickets), and Arshdeep’s 16 wickets (8 in powerplay) restricted RR to 209.
🎯 Form Guide: Strong (W-W-W-L-W), 8/12 wins, playoff-bound.
⚠️ Team Weakness: Arshdeep’s inconsistency (0/60 vs RR), middle-order untested under pressure.

Delhi Capitals (DC) Recent Performance:
🧨 Batting Depth: Rahul’s 504 runs, Stubbs’ 71* vs MI show potential.
⚔️ Bowling Threats: Kuldeep’s 6.97 economy (overs 7-16), Axar’s 20 wickets vs PBKS.
🔥 Venue Record: First 2025 game in Jaipur; Rahul’s 196 runs (average 65.3) here.
⚠️ Team Weakness: Poor form (L-L-L-L-W), worst away bowling (average 35.29).

Overall Verdict: PBKS’s form, batting depth, and spin bowling (Chahal, Brar) give them a 70% win probability, supported by betting odds (Dafabet ~1.65) and their recent 219/5 at Jaipur. DC’s Rahul and Axar could challenge, but their inconsistent top order and weak bowling tilt the scales. Expect a high-scoring game, with PBKS defending 210+ or chasing 200+ comfortably.

⚔️ Powerplay Battle: Prabhsimran/Arya (SR 185.1/166.7) vs Mustafizur/Mukesh; Rahul/Porel (SR 135.8/148.3) vs Arshdeep/Jansen. PBKS’s 76/0 in 5 overs vs RR sets the tone.

🔄 Spin vs Middle Order: Chahal/Brar vs Stubbs/Rizvi; Kuldeep/Axar vs Iyer/Wadhera. PBKS’s spin (Brar’s 3/25) was key vs RR.

💣 Death Overs Execution: Shashank/Stoinis vs Mukesh/Chameera; Stubbs/Ashutosh vs Arshdeep/Bartlett. PBKS’s 50+ in death overs vs RR was decisive.

🧱 Top-Order Consistency: Iyer’s 435 runs vs Rahul’s 504 runs. PBKS’s openers are in form.

🧠 Captaincy Tactics: Iyer’s spin reliance vs Axar’s swing usage. PBKS’s venue knowledge prevails.

🧠 Top Fantasy Picks:
🔹 Captain Choice: 🔥 Shreyas Iyer (PBKS) – 435 runs, likely to score 50+.
🔹 Vice-Captain Choice: ⚡ Yuzvendra Chahal (PBKS) – 13 wickets, key in middle overs.
🔹 Budget Pick: 💎 Tristan Stubbs (DC) – Differential for middle-order runs.

Dream11 Picks:

• Wicketkeeper: Prabhsimran Singh

• Batsmen: Shreyas Iyer (C), KL Rahul, Priyansh Arya

• All-Rounders: Axar Patel, Marcus Stoinis

• Bowlers: Yuzvendra Chahal (VC), Arshdeep Singh, Kuldeep Yadav
  Note: Prioritize PBKS batsmen (Iyer, Prabhsimran) for batting first; Rahul, Stubbs for chasing due to dew. Adjust based on toss and final XI.

🔍 Key Player Match-Ups:

• Shreyas Iyer vs Mustafizur Rahman: Iyer’s SR 110 (33 runs off 30 balls) faces Mustafizur’s cutters. If Iyer fires, PBKS set 210+; if Mustafizur strikes, DC restrict below 200.

• KL Rahul vs Arshdeep Singh: Rahul’s 31 runs off 25 balls (2 dismissals) vs Arshdeep’s pace. If Rahul dominates, DC chase 200+; if Arshdeep strikes, PBKS control early.

• Prabhsimran Singh vs Axar Patel: Prabhsimran’s 24 runs off 26 balls (1 dismissal) faces Axar’s spin. If Prabhsimran fires, PBKS post 80+ in powerplay; if Axar strikes, DC gain momentum.

📊 Win Probability & Betting Odds:

• Punjab Kings (PBKS): 70% (Odds: ~1.65–1.80) ✅

• Delhi Capitals (DC): 30% (Odds: ~2.20–2.35)

🏆 Final Prediction
PBKS are favored to win with their superior form (W-W-W-L-W), batting depth (Iyer, Prabhsimran), and spin bowling (Chahal, Brar), leveraging Jaipur’s batting-friendly track and chasing edge (64% wins). The ML model predicts PBKS’s success, supported by their 219/5 vs RR and 17 points, aiming for a top-two finish. DC’s Rahul (504 runs) and Axar could challenge, but their poor away record (average 35.29 bowling) and recent losses (L-L-L-L-W) tilt the scales. Expect PBKS to defend 210-220 or chase 200-210 with 5-7 wickets (70% probability).

📢 Final Thoughts
Iyer, Prabhsimran, and Rahul are key fantasy picks for Jaipur’s flat track; Chahal, Arshdeep, and Kuldeep will take wickets. Axar and Stoinis add all-round value. Dew favors chasing, but PBKS can set 220+ if Iyer fires. 

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