GT vs LSG, 64th Match, TATA IPL 2025

The 64th match of TATA IPL 2025 pits Gujarat Titans (GT) against Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) at Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad, on May 22, 2025, 7:30 PM IST. GT, leading the table with 18 points from 12 games (9 wins, 3 losses, NRR +0.795), aim to cement a top-two finish for a playoff advantage, coming off a 10-wicket thrashing of DC (chasing 200). LSG, eliminated from playoffs with 10 points (5 wins, 7 losses), seek to end their campaign on a high after a 6-wicket loss to SRH. GT hold a 4-2 head-to-head edge, though LSG won the reverse fixture by 6 wickets (chasing 181).

Narendra Modi Stadium’s batting-friendly pitch (average 1st innings: 185, RR 9.2) with pace and bounce (highest: 243/5, PBKS vs GT, 2025) favors high scores, but pacers (economy 8.7) thrive early. Dew (60% chance) makes chasing preferred (13/24 wins). GT’s top order (Gill: 601 runs, Sudharsan: 617 runs) and bowling (Krishna: 21 wickets) outshine LSG’s inconsistent batting (Pooran’s form dipped) and injury-hit bowling (Rathi suspended). GT’s home dominance (10/18 wins) and form make them favorites, though LSG’s Pant and Pooran could spark an upset.

🏆 Winning Probability:
📊 Gujarat Titans – 65% ✅
📊 Lucknow Super Giants – 35%

📋 If GT Bats First:
✅ Expected Total: 190–210 runs, led by Shubman Gill’s anchoring and Sai Sudharsan’s aggression.
✅ Key Bowlers (LSG): Avesh Khan and Akash Deep must strike early to keep GT under 200.
✅ Finishers to Watch: Rahul Tewatia and Sherfane Rutherford could push GT past 205 with late hitting.

📋 If LSG Bats First:
✅ Expected Total: 170–190 runs, driven by Rishabh Pant’s powerplay and Nicholas Pooran’s finishing.
✅ Key Bowlers (GT): Prasidh Krishna and Rashid Khan will target LSG’s middle order to restrict them under 180.
✅ Game Changers: Ayush Badoni and Abdul Samad could accelerate for a competitive total.

Gujarat Titans (GT):

• Shubman Gill (c)

• Sai Sudharsan

• Jos Buttler (wk)

• Sherfane Rutherford

• Rahul Tewatia

• Shahrukh Khan

• Arshad Khan

• Rashid Khan

• Ravisrinivasan Sai Kishore

• Kagiso Rabada

• Prasidh Krishna

• Mohammed Siraj
  Impact Player Options: Washington Sundar, Gerald Coetzee, Ishant Sharma

Lucknow Super Giants (LSG):

• Mitchell Marsh

• Aiden Markram

• Nicholas Pooran

• Rishabh Pant (c & wk)

• Ayush Badoni

• Abdul Samad

• David Miller

• Shardul Thakur

• Akash Deep

• Avesh Khan

• Ravi Bishnoi

• Will O’Rourke
  Impact Player Options: Shahbaz Ahmed, Akash Maharaj Singh, Prince Yadav

🔴 Gujarat Titans (GT):
✅ Strengths:

• Dominant top order (Sudharsan: 617 runs, Gill: 601 runs, Buttler: 406 runs) with 1,600+ combined runs in 2025.

• Lethal bowling (Krishna: 21 wickets, Siraj: 15 wickets) with best powerplay economy (7.5).

• Strong home record (10/18 wins at Ahmedabad, 4/6 vs LSG). ❌ Weaknesses:

• Rashid Khan’s lean patch (3 wickets in 2025).

• Middle-order reliance on Rutherford, Tewatia if top order fails. ⭐ Key Players:

• Sai Sudharsan: Orange Cap holder, 112* vs DC.

• Prasidh Krishna: Purple Cap leader, 21 wickets.

• Shubman Gill: Captain, 601 runs, 93* vs DC.

🔵 Lucknow Super Giants (LSG):
✅ Strengths:

• Explosive batting with Pant (300+ runs) and Pooran’s potential (288 runs, SR 225 earlier).

• Bishnoi’s spin (9 wickets, best 2/18) on a slowing pitch.

• 6-wicket win vs GT in reverse fixture. ❌ Weaknesses:

• Poor form (L-L-L-L-W), eliminated from playoffs.

• Bowling crippled by Rathi’s suspension and Bishnoi’s dip (2 wickets in 5 games). ⭐ Key Players:

• Rishabh Pant: Captain, key for powerplay aggression.

• Nicholas Pooran: Middle-order firepower, needs form revival.

• Aiden Markram: All-round stability, crucial vs GT’s bowling.

🏟 Venue: Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad

🌡 Weather: 37°C (max 41°C, min 28°C), 50% humidity, 25% rain chance, 60% dew chance. Cloudy, but low risk of rain per IMD. Dew favors chasing.

Pitch Characteristics:
✅ Batting Paradise: Average 1st innings: 185 (2025, RR 9.2). Highest: 243/5 (PBKS vs GT, 2025). Lowest: 89 (GT vs DC, 2024). ✅ Pace-Friendly: Pacers (economy 8.7) get bounce early; spinners (economy 8.2) grip later.
✅ Boundary Sizes: 61m square, 75m straight, enabling high boundary percentage (15.3% 1st innings).

Ideal Strategy:
🧤 Batting First: Target 190-210, preserving wickets for Sudharsan/Tewatia’s surge.
💡 Bowling First: Early wickets (Pant/Gill) and spin in middle overs (Bishnoi/Rashid) are key. Toss winners likely to bowl first due to dew (13/24 chases won).

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Gujarat Titans (GT) Recent Performance:
🔥 Batting Strength: Sudharsan’s 112* and Gill’s 93* chased 200 vs DC without loss.
💥 Bowling Dominance: Krishna’s 21 wickets, Arshad’s 1/33 vs DC restricted 199/3.
🎯 Form Guide: Strong (W-W-W-W-L), 9/12 wins, playoff-bound.
⚠️ Team Weakness: Rashid’s lean form (3 wickets), middle-order untested.

Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) Recent Performance:
🧨 Batting Depth: Pant’s 50+ vs SRH, Badoni’s recent 74 show fight.
⚔️ Bowling Threats: Bishnoi’s 9 wickets, O’Rourke’s pace troubled GT in reverse fixture.
🔥 Venue Record: 1/2 wins at Ahmedabad, 6-wicket chase of 181 in 2025. ⚠️ Team Weakness: Pooran’s form dip, bowling hit by Rathi’s ban.

Overall Verdict: GT’s form, home dominance, and top-order strength (Sudharsan, Gill) give them a 65% win probability, as predicted by betting odds (Dafabet). LSG’s Pant and Pooran could challenge, but their inconsistent batting and weakened bowling tilt the scales. Expect a high-scoring game, with GT defending 200+ or chasing 190+ comfortably.

⚔️ Powerplay Battle: Gill/Sudharsan vs Avesh/O’Rourke; Pant/Marsh vs Krishna/Siraj. GT’s 72/0 in 6 overs vs LSG (2023) sets the tone. 

🔄 Spin vs Middle Order: Rashid/Sai Kishore vs Pooran/Samad; Bishnoi vs Rutherford/Tewatia. GT’s spin control is key.

💣 Death Overs Execution: Tewatia/Shahrukh vs Thakur/Deep; Badoni/Miller vs Rabada/Siraj. GT’s 3/12 by Krishna vs DC was decisive. 

🧱 Top-Order Consistency: Gill’s 601 runs vs Pant’s aggression. GT’s openers are in form.

🧠 Captaincy Tactics: Gill’s chasing acumen vs Pant’s aggression. GT’s home knowledge prevails.

🧠 Top Fantasy Picks:
🔹 Captain Choice: 🔥 Sai Sudharsan (GT) – Orange Cap holder, likely to score 50+.
🔹 Vice-Captain Choice: ⚡ Prasidh Krishna (GT) – Purple Cap leader, 21 wickets.
🔹 Budget Pick: 💎 Ayush Badoni (LSG) – Differential for late-order runs.

Dream11 Picks:

• Wicketkeeper: Jos Buttler

• Batsmen: Sai Sudharsan (C), Shubman Gill, Nicholas Pooran

• All-Rounders: Aiden Markram, Rahul Tewatia

• Bowlers: Prasidh Krishna (VC), Mohammed Siraj, Ravi Bishnoi
  Note: Prioritize GT batsmen (Sudharsan, Gill) for batting first; Pooran, Pant for chasing due to dew. Adjust based on toss and final XI.

🔍 Key Player Match-Ups:

• Sai Sudharsan vs Ravi Bishnoi: Sudharsan’s 617 runs face Bishnoi’s 9 wickets. If Sudharsan fires, GT set 200+; if Bishnoi strikes, LSG restrict below 190.

• Rishabh Pant vs Prasidh Krishna: Pant’s aggression meets Krishna’s 21 wickets. If Pant dominates, LSG chase 190+; if Krishna strikes, GT control early.

• Nicholas Pooran vs Rashid Khan: Pooran’s 87 off 72 vs Rashid (3 dismissals) is key. If Pooran fires, LSG post 185+; if Rashid strikes, GT keep LSG under 175.

📊 Win Probability & Betting Odds:

• Gujarat Titans (GT): 65% (Odds: ~1.75–1.90) ✅

• Lucknow Super Giants (LSG): 35% (Odds: ~2.10–2.25)

🏆 Final Prediction
GT are favored to win with their dominant form, home advantage, and top-order firepower (Sudharsan, Gill), as supported by Dafabet odds and their 10-wicket DC win. The ML model predicts GT’s success, leveraging Krishna’s bowling (21 wickets) and Ahmedabad’s batting-friendly track. LSG’s Pant and Pooran could spark an upset, but their bowling weaknesses (Rathi out) and poor form (4/5 losses) tilt the scales. Expect GT to defend 200-210 or chase 190-200 with 5-7 wickets (65% probability).

📢 Final Thoughts
Sudharsan, Gill, and Pooran are key fantasy picks for Ahmedabad’s flat track; Krishna, Siraj, and Bishnoi will take wickets. Markram and Tewatia add all-round value. Dew favors chasing, but GT can set 210+ if Sudharsan fires. Check Star Sports, JioHotstar, or ESPNcricinfo for live updates, and adjust fantasy/betting picks based on toss and XI.

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