Wellington vs Northern Knights, 16th Match

The 16th match of the Super Smash 2025-26 between Wellington and Northern Knights promises an intriguing T20 contest at the Basin Reserve. Wellington have shown mixed results this season, with a combination of experienced campaigners and rising stars forming their core strength. Their batting, led by consistent top-order performers, has been reliable, but occasional middle-order lapses have cost them runs. Northern Knights, on the other hand, have exhibited a more balanced approach, boasting a strong bowling unit capable of putting pressure under varying conditions. Historically, Wellington have dominated the head-to-head encounters with Northern Knights in T20s at home, leveraging their familiarity with the Basin Reserve pitch and conditions. Key players such as Wellington’s explosive opener and their main strike bowler have been pivotal. The Knights rely heavily on their all-rounders who provide flexibility both with bat and ball. Strategically, Wellington might look to exploit their batting depth and power-hitting abilities upfront, while focusing on tight bowling in the death overs. Northern Knights will seek to control the early overs with disciplined bowling and aim to build momentum through their middle order. Given the conditions and recent form, Wellington holds a slight edge considering their home advantage and past performances on this ground. However, the Northern Knights’ resilience and tactical adaptability cannot be underestimated in what is expected to be a closely fought match.

Winning Probability: Wellington: 55%, Northern Knights: 45%

If Wellington bats first at the Basin Reserve, they are likely to post a competitive total in the range of 160-170 runs, benefitting from the relatively balanced pitch that favors stroke play with some assistance to seamers early on. Their batting depth allows them to accelerate in the final overs. Conversely, if Northern Knights take first strike, an estimated score of 150-160 runs looks probable. They have shown a tendency to start cautiously before increasing the scoring rate, which means their total could be slightly lower due to the pitch conditions offering some movement. Both teams are accustomed to playing aggressively, but the pitch typically rewards a measured approach in the first 10 overs, resulting in these mid-150s to high-160s first innings totals.

The Basin Reserve is renowned for its historically balanced pitch that caters to both batsmen and bowlers. The average first-innings score at this venue in recent Super Smash matches hovers around 165 runs. Teams chasing here have a slightly better success rate of about 52%, indicating modest assistance to spinners and bowlers under lights. Weather on January 11 is forecasted to be clear with minimal chance of rain, and temperatures around 22°C, conducive to a full match being played. For Wellington, the best bowler record at the Basin Reserve is held by Matt Henry who has consistently troubled batsmen with pace and swing. Their most successful batsman here is Tom Bruce, known for his composed innings under pressure. From the Northern Knights, Jacob Duffy leads the bowling charts with impactful spells, while Glenn Phillips boasts notable batting success at this venue, known for his explosive starts. The ground’s dimensions allow for good stroke play but also support seamers early and spin in the later stages, making it a balanced contest for bowlers and batsmen alike.

Metric	Wellington	Northern Knights
Total Matches Played	12	12
Matches Won	7	5

Team Recent Performance

Team	Last 5 Matches (W/L)
Wellington	W, L, W, W, L
Northern Knights	L, W, W, L, W

Tom Bruce (Wellington) has been a consistent run scorer in recent matches, anchoring the innings and accelerating seamlessly in the death overs.

Matt Henry (Wellington) is in fine bowling form, delivering crucial early breakthroughs and maintaining tight economy in the powerplay.

Joe Gordon (Wellington) has been an impactful allrounder, contributing valuable runs in the lower middle order and providing handy overs.

Glenn Phillips (Northern Knights) has emerged as a destructive opener, with recent innings showcasing aggressive strokeplay that sets the tone early.

Jacob Duffy (Northern Knights) leads the Knights’ bowling attack with disciplined line and length, adept at picking wickets through variations.

Ben Sears (Northern Knights) is a promising fast bowler adding depth and pace to the attack, recently impressing with tight spells and economical figures.