Pakistan vs Sri Lanka, 3rd ODI

The 3rd ODI between Pakistan and Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium promises to be a crucial contest in the ongoing Sri Lanka tour of Pakistan 2025. Pakistan enters this match with momentum following strong performances in the series so far. With a blend of experienced players and young talents, Pakistan has been consistent with their batting depth and variety in their bowling attack. Sri Lanka, despite a few setbacks in the prior matches, has shown fighting spirit and possesses key match-winners who can change the game on their day. Historically, when these two teams face each other in subcontinental conditions, Pakistan tends to hold a slight edge due to familiarity with pitches and support from the home crowd. Recent form highlights Pakistan’s dominance in the middle overs, spearheaded by players like Babar Azam and Shadab Khan who have contributed both with bat and ball. Sri Lanka depends heavily on their young batting sensations and disciplined spin attack. Their middle order, however, has shown some vulnerability against quality pace bowling. Strategically, Pakistan will look to exploit the early movement on the Rawalpindi pitch and put pressure with their pace attack upfront. Sri Lanka’s plan will arguably hinge on consolidating after losing early wickets and relying on their spinners to control the middle overs. The chasing record at this venue favors teams batting second, so the toss could play a major part in the outcome. Given current form, home advantage, and squad depth, Pakistan enters as slight favorites but Sri Lanka should not be underestimated.

AI Suggested Match Winner: Pakistan 58%, Sri Lanka 42%

If Pakistan bats first, they are likely to post a competitive total in the range of 280-300 runs. Their strong batting lineup has the capability to build partnerships and accelerate in the latter stages, especially on a batting-friendly wicket at Rawalpindi. On the other hand, if Sri Lanka bats first, considering their current form and the pitch conditions, a score around 260-280 would be a realistic target. They have shown resilience but would need to capitalize on the powerplay and avoid slumps in the middle overs to reach a defendable total. Both teams will look to optimize their innings based on the pitch variations and weather conditions at the time of play.

The Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium typically offers a balanced pitch that supports batsmen with true bounce, especially during the first innings. The average first-innings score here is approximately 275 runs. Historically, the chasing teams have enjoyed moderate success, winning about 55% of matches at this venue due to predictable conditions and assistance for spinners in the later stages. The weather forecast indicates clear skies with mild temperatures, ideal for a full game without interruptions. Among the two teams, Shaheen Afridi stands out as the best bowler at this ground, having taken multiple early wickets using the seam-friendly conditions. For batting, Babar Azam holds the highest individual score at Rawalpindi against Sri Lanka, showcasing his ability to handle pressure and play long innings. Pakistan’s record best bowling performance here is a 5-wicket haul by Shaheen Afridi. Sri Lanka’s top batsman on this ground is Pathum Nissanka, who has consistently provided solid starts.

Matches Played	50
Pakistan Wins	30
Sri Lanka Wins	19
NR/No Result	1

Team Recent Performance

Team	Last 5 Matches
Pakistan	W, W, L, W, W
Sri Lanka	L, L, W, L, W

Babar Azam has been in excellent form this series, anchoring Pakistan's batting with solid technique and scoring heavily against Sri Lanka’s bowling attack.

Shaheen Afridi remains Pakistan’s spearhead with his ability to take early wickets and generate pace on the Rawalpindi track.

Shadab Khan offers all-round value, controlling the middle overs with his spin and contributing useful runs down the order.

Pathum Nissanka is Sri Lanka’s promising young batsman who has shown consistency and resilience, often giving his team strong starts.

Dushmantha Chameera brings pace and bounce, making him Sri Lanka’s key threat with the ball, especially in early overs.

Dasun Shanaka, Sri Lanka’s captain, contributes both with timely boundaries and wicket-taking capabilities, crucial in tight match situations.