Asia Cup 2025

Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka, 11th Match Asia Cup 2025

Thursday, September 18, 2025
08:00 PM IST
Afganistan cricket

Afganistan

vs
Sri Lanaka cricket

Sri Lanka

🏏 Match Prediction

The 11th match of the Asia Cup 2025 sees Afghanistan (AFG) take on Sri Lanka (SL) at the Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi. Check pitch report, probable XIs, key players, and winning chances in our AFG vs SL Asia Cup 2025 match prediction.

Afghanistan, led by Rashid Khan, have been impressive with their fearless batting at the top and a world-class spin attack. Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran provide firepower, while all-rounders Mohammad Nabi and Azmatullah Omarzai add balance. With Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad in spin-friendly UAE conditions, Afghanistan will be tough to beat.

Sri Lanka, under Charith Asalanka’s captaincy, bring a balanced squad. Kusal Mendis and Pathum Nissanka are their batting anchors, while Wanindu Hasaranga’s all-round ability remains the X-factor. The pace duo of Chameera and Nuwan Thushara provide wicket-taking options, with Maheesh Theekshana handling spin duties.

📌 If Afghanistan Bat First
  • Expected Total: 160–175
  • Key Batters: Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Ibrahim Zadran
  • Key Sri Lanka Bowlers: Dushmantha Chameera (powerplay), Wanindu Hasaranga (middle overs)
  • Strategic Insight: Afghanistan will look to maximize the powerplay with Gurbaz’s aggression. A total above 170 could put Sri Lanka under pressure, especially against Rashid Khan’s spin in the chase.
📌 If Sri Lanka Bat First
  • Expected Total: 150–165
  • Key Batters: Kusal Mendis, Charith Asalanka
  • Key Afghanistan Bowlers: Fazalhaq Farooqi (new ball), Rashid Khan (middle overs)
  • Strategic Insight: Sri Lanka need a solid start from their top order. Anything below 155 may not be enough against Afghanistan’s spin-heavy attack.
🎯 Winning Probability – Asia Cup 2025 Prediction
  • Afghanistan (AFG): 55%
  • Sri Lanka (SL): 45%

👉 According to our AFG vs SL Asia Cup 2025 prediction, Afghanistan hold a slight edge due to their superior spin attack and greater familiarity with Abu Dhabi conditions. However, if Sri Lanka’s top order fires and Hasaranga delivers with the ball, the contest could go down to the wire.

Our betting tips for this match
🏏 Top Batsman: Rahmanullah Gurbaz (AFG) (~3.5 odds) – Afghanistan’s explosive opener can take full advantage of the powerplay. His six-hitting ability and consistency in UAE conditions make him the safest batting pick.
🎯 Top Bowler: Rashid Khan (AFG) (~3.9 odds) – The Afghan skipper thrives on slow Abu Dhabi pitches. His variations in the middle overs can break Sri Lanka’s batting rhythm and turn the match.
⚡ Top All-Rounder: Wanindu Hasaranga (SL) (~4.1 odds) – A proven game-changer, Hasaranga offers value with both bat and ball. His spin will be crucial on this surface, and his late-order hitting makes him a strong high-value pick.

🧾 AFG vs SL Probable Playing XI

Afghanistan (AFG):
Saqidullah Ataq, Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), Ibrahim Zadran, Gulbadin Naib, Mohammad Nabi, Azmatullah Omarzai, Karim Janat, Rashid Khan (c), Noor Ahmad, AM Ghazanfar, Fazalhaq Farooqi

Sri Lanka (SL):
Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis (wk), Kamil Mishara, Kusal Perera, Charith Asalanka (c), Kamindu Mendis, Dasun Shanaka, Wanindu Hasaranga, Dushmantha Chameera, Maheesh Theekshana, Nuwan Thushara

📊 Match Analytics

Afghanistan (AFG)

Strengths:

  • Explosive opening pair of Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran capable of quick powerplay runs.
  • World-class spin attack led by Rashid Khan, Noor Ahmad, and Mohammad Nabi, ideally suited for Abu Dhabi conditions.
  • Multiple all-rounders (Nabi, Omarzai, Karim Janat) add balance and flexibility.

⚠️ Weaknesses:

  • Middle-order instability if top-order collapses early.
  • Heavy reliance on spinners; pacers like Farooqi may struggle at the death.
  • Lack of finishing power in close chases compared to Sri Lanka’s hitters.

Key Players to Watch: Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi

Sri Lanka (SL)

Strengths:

  • Strong top-order anchored by Kusal Mendis and Pathum Nissanka.
  • Wanindu Hasaranga’s all-round brilliance provides both wicket-taking threat and lower-order hitting.
  • Balanced attack with Chameera’s pace and Theekshana’s spin variations.

⚠️ Weaknesses:

  • Overdependence on Kusal Mendis for stability in batting.
  • Death bowling inconsistency from pacers under pressure.
  • Middle-order vulnerable against quality spin.

Key Players to Watch: Kusal Mendis, Wanindu Hasaranga, Maheesh Theekshana

📌 Overall Insight:
This clash is expected to be a spin-dominated contest. Afghanistan’s familiarity with UAE conditions and superior spin trio gives them a narrow edge. However, Sri Lanka’s experienced top order and Hasaranga’s all-round impact keep them very much in the game. The battle between Gurbaz vs Chameera in the powerplay and Mendis vs Rashid Khan in the middle overs will be decisive.

🌍 Pitch Report & Weather Conditions

The Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi, is known for its slow surface that favors spinners as the game progresses. Batters will need to settle in before accelerating, as stroke-making can be tricky early on. Pacers like Fazalhaq Farooqi and Dushmantha Chameera may find swing under lights, but spinners such as Rashid Khan, Noor Ahmad, and Wanindu Hasaranga are expected to dominate the middle overs. Dew in the second innings could ease batting conditions, giving chasing sides a slight edge.

Average 1st Innings Score (T20s): 155–165 runs
Pitch Nature: Slow and spin-friendly, challenging for stroke play early
Pace vs Spin: Pacers useful in powerplay & death overs; spinners control the middle overs
Weather: Clear skies 🌤, around 28–30°C, with low humidity. No rain threat. Dew factor likely.
📌 Toss Impact: Teams usually prefer bowling first at Abu Dhabi to take advantage of dew and easier chasing conditions.

🎯 Key Player Matchups & Impact Players

🔑 Key Player Matchups

  • Rahmanullah Gurbaz vs Dushmantha Chameera – Powerplay battle where Chameera’s pace and bounce will test Gurbaz’s attacking intent.
  • Ibrahim Zadran vs Maheesh Theekshana – Early middle-over contest; Zadran’s aggressive style against spin could shift momentum.
  • Kusal Mendis vs Rashid Khan – Crucial middle-over duel; Mendis’ batting stability versus Rashid’s wicket-taking spin.
  • Wanindu Hasaranga vs Mohammad Nabi – All-rounders’ battle; Hasaranga’s leg-spin and finishing ability could counter Nabi’s contributions.

🌟 Impact Players

Afghanistan (AFG):

  • Rahmanullah Gurbaz – Explosive opener; can take control of powerplay and anchor innings if he gets going.
  • Rashid Khan – Strike bowler; expected to take key wickets in middle overs and control scoring.
  • Mohammad Nabi – Experienced all-rounder; adds balance and can change the game with bat or ball.

Sri Lanka (SL):

  • Kusal Mendis – Top-order anchor; consistency and stroke play crucial for team stability.
  • Wanindu Hasaranga – All-rounder; wicket-taking ability and lower-order hitting make him a game-changer.
  • Maheesh Theekshana – Spin specialist; expected to control middle overs and apply pressure on Afghan batters.

💸 Fantasy Cricket Tips & Captaincy Choices

📌 Must-Have Picks:

  • Rahmanullah Gurbaz (AFG) – Explosive opener; high-impact in powerplay and reliable for fantasy points.
  • Rashid Khan (AFG) – Strike bowler; picks key wickets in middle overs, high fantasy value.
  • Kusal Mendis (SL) – Top-order batter; anchors innings and can deliver big scores.
  • Wanindu Hasaranga (SL) – All-rounder; provides points with both bat and ball.
  • Fazalhaq Farooqi (AFG) – Paceman; can deliver early breakthroughs and economical overs.

👑 Captaincy Choices:

  • Captain: Rashid Khan / Rahmanullah Gurbaz
  • Vice-Captain: Wanindu Hasaranga / Kusal Mendis

📌 Tips Based on Abu Dhabi Conditions:

  • Prioritize spinners like Rashid Khan and Hasaranga in fantasy squads; they are likely to dominate middle overs.
  • Chasing teams may benefit from dew, so top-order batters like Gurbaz and Mendis are high-value picks.
  • All-rounders contributing in both departments (Hasaranga, Nabi) provide extra points and balance for fantasy teams.