ICC Champions Trophy 2025

Afghanistan vs Australia, 10th Match, Group B

Friday, February 28, 2025
02:30 PM IST
Afganistan cricket

Afganistan

vs
Australi

Australia

Match Prediction

Afghanistan’s hopes for victory rest on their spin attack and a solid top-order performance. Hashmatullah Shahidi and Rahmanullah Gurbaz will need to anchor the innings, while Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad must exploit the conditions in Lahore to trouble Australia’s batting lineup. If Afghanistan bats first, they’ll aim for a competitive total around 260+, relying on their spinners to defend. Chasing will require stability from Ibrahim Zadran and a strong finish from Mohammad Nabi and Najibullah Zadran.

Australia, on the other hand, will bank on their experienced batting lineup and all-rounders. Steven Smith’s leadership and form will be key, along with contributions from Travis Head and Marnus Labuschagne. Glenn Maxwell’s explosive power in the middle order can tilt the game in Australia’s favor. Their bowling attack, led by Adam Zampa and Nathan Ellis, must contain Afghanistan’s aggressive batting and take early wickets to avoid a high-pressure chase.

Winning Probability: Australia: 60% Afghanistan: 40%

If Afghanistan Bats First:

  • Expected to post a total of 260+ runs, with Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Hashmatullah Shahidi leading the charge.
  • Spinners like Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad will play a crucial role in defending the total.
  • Afghanistan’s middle order, featuring Mohammad Nabi and Najibullah Zadran, must accelerate in the final overs.
  • Early wickets will be vital for Australia; Nathan Ellis and Adam Zampa must strike within the powerplay.

If Australia Bats First:

  • Likely to target a total of 280+ runs, with Travis Head and Steven Smith providing a strong foundation.
  • Glenn Maxwell and Josh Inglis can provide firepower in the middle and death overs.
  • Afghanistan’s key to keeping Australia in check will lie in early breakthroughs from Fazal Haq Farooqi and spin pressure from Rashid Khan.
  • Afghanistan’s chase will depend on the top order’s stability and calculated aggression from Ibrahim Zadran and Rahmat Shah.

The match promises an intriguing clash between Afghanistan’s spinners and Australia’s dynamic batting lineup, with Australia holding the upper hand on paper but Afghanistan’s unpredictable flair always posing a threat.

Our betting tips for this match
Top Batsman: Steven Smith (AUS) - Australia’s captain and a technically sound batsman, capable of anchoring and accelerating the innings.
Top Bowler: Rashid Khan (AFG) - Afghanistan’s star spinner, known for his wicket-taking abilities and control in the middle overs.
Top All-Rounder: Glenn Maxwell (AUS) - A game-changer with both bat and ball, his explosive hitting and effective off-spin make him a key player.

Match Analytics

Afghanistan:

Strengths:

  • World-class spin attack led by Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad.
  • Explosive top-order with Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran.
  • Experienced all-rounders like Mohammad Nabi provide balance.
  • Unpredictable style of play that can unsettle any team. 

Weaknesses:

  • Over-reliance on spin; lack of experienced fast bowlers.
  • Middle-order inconsistency under pressure.
  • Struggles against quality pace attacks on faster tracks.
  • Need for early breakthroughs to control Australia’s powerful lineup.

Australia: 

Strengths:

  • Deep and experienced batting lineup with Steven Smith, Travis Head, and Glenn Maxwell.
  • Versatile all-rounders offering balance and depth.
  • Quality pace attack with Nathan Ellis and Sean Abbott.
  • Proven ability to handle pressure in big tournaments. 

Weaknesses:

  • Vulnerability against high-quality spin.
  • Dependence on top-order performance.
  • Inexperienced bowling attack beyond their main stars.
  • Middle-order’s occasional inconsistency when chasing big totals.

Performance Analysis on Both Teams

Afghanistan:

  • Hashmatullah Shahidi: The captain’s role will be crucial in anchoring the innings and providing stability.
  • Rahmanullah Gurbaz: An aggressive opener who can set the tone with quick runs.
  • Rashid Khan: Afghanistan’s trump card, known for his ability to change the game with his spin.
  • Mohammad Nabi: An experienced all-rounder who adds depth with both bat and ball.
  • Ibrahim Zadran: A reliable top-order batsman who can anchor long innings.

Australia:

  • Steven Smith: Australia’s captain and most dependable batsman, known for his consistency.
  • Travis Head: An explosive opener who can take the game away in the powerplay.
  • Glenn Maxwell: A game-changing all-rounder with both explosive batting and effective off-spin.
  • Adam Zampa: Australia’s lead spinner, crucial for containing Afghanistan’s middle order.
  • Nathan Ellis: A key pacer who can strike early and contain runs in the death overs.

Key Focus Areas

  • Afghanistan’s Spin Dominance – 30%: Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad’s ability to exploit Lahore’s pitch conditions will be crucial in restricting Australia’s powerful batting lineup.
  • Australia’s Top-Order Consistency – 25%: Travis Head and Steven Smith must provide a solid foundation, especially against Afghanistan’s spin threat.
  • Middle-Order Stability – 20%: Glenn Maxwell and Mohammad Nabi’s performances in the middle overs could decide the game’s momentum.
  • Early Wickets – 15%: Both teams will need their pacers, like Nathan Ellis and Fazal Haq Farooqi, to strike early and put pressure on the opposition.
  • Death Overs Execution – 10%: Australia’s ability to finish strong with Maxwell and Inglis, and Afghanistan’s reliance on Nabi and Najibullah Zadran, will be key to setting or chasing targets.

Who Will Win?

Australia has the upper hand with a strong batting lineup and an experienced bowling attack. To win, they must dominate the powerplay, counter Afghanistan’s spin challenge, and finish strong in the death overs.

Afghanistan’s best chance is to strike early and put pressure on Australia’s middle order. If they bat first, they must set a target above 250 to challenge the Australian side.

Overall, Australia is likely to win, but Afghanistan’s spin attack could create an upset if they get early breakthroughs and control the middle overs.

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Fantasy Cricket & Betting Insights

Top Fantasy Picks:

  • Captain Choice: Steven Smith (AUS) – Australia’s anchor in the middle order, capable of playing match-winning knocks.
  • Vice-Captain Choice: Rashid Khan (AFG) – Afghanistan’s trump card, who can contribute with both ball and bat in crucial moments.
  • Budget Pick: Ibrahim Zadran (AFG) – A consistent top-order batsman who can provide valuable points with a solid start.

Key Player Match-Ups:

  • Rashid Khan vs Glenn Maxwell – A battle of spin mastery vs aggressive stroke play. Can Rashid contain Maxwell’s explosive batting?
  • Travis Head vs Fazal Haq Farooqi – Afghanistan’s pacer must dismiss Head early to prevent Australia from gaining early momentum.
  • Noor Ahmad vs Steven Smith – A crucial contest between the young spinner and Australia’s most dependable batsman.

Win Probability & Betting Odds:

  • Australia: 80% (Odds: 1.50)
  • Afghanistan: 20% (Odds: 3.50)